Overpopulation: Causes And Consequences

The concept of global challenges is very ambiguous as it encompasses multifarious types of challenges, consequences and solutions. However, Professor Kristen Gelsdof succinctly defines a global challenge as “any major trend, shock or development that has the potential for serious global impacts” (1). I would like to extend this definition with “and can only be solved with global compliance and collaboration”, as I believe that no global challenge can be solved by any one nation or institution alone. They require collaborative action among all members of the international community, including IGOs, NGOs and corporations (2).

A significant challenge facing us today is world population, which can be characterised as overpopulation and as a growing threat to human survival on Earth. From the beginning of human history, it took until 1804 to reach a world population of 1 billion people, but only approximately 200 years after that to reach 7 billion (see Figure 1). Now, humans are reproducing at an unprecedented rate, with the population expected to increase by 2 billion in the next 30 years and peak at 11 billion by 2100 (3). The Industrial Revolution was a pinnacle point of human history that brought advancements in science, technology and transport worldwide. These advancements have enabled more people to reach the reproductive age and have reduced the fatality rate. As a result of this, increasing worldwide population growth has become a major contributor to climate change, rising sea-levels, exhaustion of natural resources and rising living costs and unemployment (4). It is now more important than ever before to face overpopulation with global solutions, otherwise the consequences will be devastating.

In her report The Population Explosion: Causes and Consequences, Carolyn Kinder defines overpopulation as “the condition of having more people than can live on earth in comfort, happiness and health and still leave the world a fit place for future generations” (6). With more than 220 000 consumers being added to the planet daily (7), the disparity between human consumption and renewed global resources is increasing at an extremely unsustainable and alarming rate.

Earth Overshoot Day is the date which marks the depletion of the global allowance of the Earth’s yearly quota of natural resources. These resources include clean water, clean air and carbon sequestration (8). In 2019, Earth Overshoot day was July 29th, the earliest date recorded. To put this into perspective, in 1987 the date was October 23rd and in 2005 it was August 26th (9). This current usage is equivalent to 1.7 Earths, and if this trend continues, with more people using more resources, three Earths will be needed by 2050 (see Figure 2) (10).

The first step in solving overpopulation is recognising it as a global challenge and acknowledging that it’s growing beyond its limits. When looking at Gelsdorf’s definition, it is quite evident that the concept of overpopulation cannot be denied as a global challenge. This trend has the ability to effect any area of the globe and has the ‘potential for serious global impacts’, such as resource depletion. Furthermore, because overpopulation is “trans-institutional in solution” (12) it can only be solved with ‘global compliance and collaboration’.

The 1994 International Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development recognised this fact. The conference identified that there is a “delicate balance between population and natural resources” (13) and it urges national governments to take responsibility to resolve their own population issues “in a way that respects their own national and cultural identity, values and tradition” (14).

A prominent example of a nation taking specific action to tackle population growth is China and it’s one child policy. Introduced in 1980, this unique and unprecedented domestic measure established strict government monitoring to ensure that Chinese couples were having one child only. Incentives were offered to those who complied with the policy, including paid vacation and priority housing. With China making up 19% of the global population alone, the policy has been effective in preventing approximately 400 million births (15), but despite this success, China has suffered from some negative side effects, including a skewed male population, an aging population and a shrinking workforce. The policy framework focused on numbers only and did not – or was not able to – take account of entrenched cultural biases that favoured survival of male children over female children. So, resolving the challenge clearly lies within shrouds of moral, religious, political and practical circumstances, as well as numbers.

Recent modifications to the policy now allow couples to have two children if either parent is a single child. A study published by The Lancet by Professor Yi Zeng and Professor Therese Hesketh highlighted that the two-child policy will “not result in a baby boom, but rather a moderate increase in fertility” (16), because of the low fertility culture in China due to the previous policy. Currently, China’s birth rates are at 1.9 children per mother (see Figure 3) and if this rate is sustained, it will lead to depopulation. However, the rate of decline will not mean a dramatic reduction in total population numbers, which still stands at 1.4 billion (17).

For the global community to benefit the most out of this solution, other nations should follow suit and implement their own birth policies within the bounds of their culture and awareness, especially nations with higher populations like India, the United States and Indonesia (18). It’s a non-disruptive way to slowly decrease the population as it doesn’t impact individuals who are already alive, but instead prevents births.

Another international solution is the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which outline 17 goals for the international community to work towards that are “the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all” (20). Because of state sovereignty, the SDGs are not legally binding. Instead, they are an innovative and effective way to exert pressure on nations and hold them accountable to accomplish the goals within their own borders (21). Additionally, compliance with the SGDs allows nations to create or maintain ties with other countries and establish a positive reputation within the global community. Although there is no specific SDG for overpopulation, the interconnective nature of the goals ensures that progress of some SDGs, especially ‘gender equality’ and ‘quality education’, is progress towards reducing overpopulation.

In his documentary Bill Nye Saves the World, scientist Bill Nye discusses the link between empowering women and overpopulation, stating, “by empowering women, we can lower the birth rate and keep population growth manageable” (22). Giving women access to a quality education and career is an impactful and ethical way to lower the birth rate. Not only is an education a vital way to gain knowledge about the many birth control options, but having a career usually means a woman can choose to have children later in life, which usually is linked to having fewer children. While this is a desirable aim, it is unfair for the female population to address this alone. The attitude and expectation of the male cohort must change if increased population levels are to be stabilised or reduced over time.

If the UN were to modify the SDGs to add a specific overpopulation goal, it will increase awareness about this issue and hopefully encourage nations put in place their own policies to sustain their precious resources and ensure the future of the world. Such an approach requires some sort of incentive which may include attaching achievement of population goals to financial assistance levels. World lending and aid organisations need to link their practices to a more sustainable level of population growth in spite of the moral and ethical issues that such an approach presents and the financial implications of doing so.

The actions we as a global community take now to combat overpopulation will determine the future of humankind and the environment. We have the power to decide whether we want to prosper as a race or succumb to irreversible environmental degradation and resource depletion. It is vital for all members of the international community to collaborate, cooperate and comply to ensure that the global solutions put in place are effective and sustainable.